NEW PROBLEM, NEW SOLUTION

“War is politics by other means,” wrote German philosopher Carl von Clausewitz. But whose politics matter enough to wage a war?

The answer to this question has changed dramatically since World War II. No longer is war automatically understood as state versus state. Intrastate conflicts (civil and proxy wars) have emerged as the leading forms of violence while interstate conflicts continue at much less frequent rates.

 

Source: Gleditsch et al. (2002), Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset

 

 

Trends in Conflict Type | When a non-state actor challenges a government’s authority, there is a breakdown in state function. Taxes aren’t collected, crimes aren’t prosecuted, basic services aren’t provided. What does this phenomenon mean for organizations like the UN that work to stem conflict? Their peacebuilding operations need a greater focus on rule of law and state capacity-building efforts.

[NOTE: Green line represents "intrastate conflict" - violence between non-state groups within a region, a la: Syria, DRC, or the FARC in Colombia]

 

 

Source: Folke Bernadotte Academy Publications, 2012; “UN Peace Operations and Rule of Law Assistance in Africa 1989-2010: Data, Patterns and Questions for the Future"

 

 

Evolving UN Role | In 2006, the United Nations recognized the growing need for a dedicated team that could help at-war states resolve conflict through mediation. Experts in rule of law, constitution drafting, cease-fires and other areas were assembled in the Mediation Support Unit, under the auspices of the Department of Political Affairs.

 

NOTE: Role of Law assistance is now a part of EVERY UN peacekeeping mission around the world, starting in 2008.

 

 

Source: V. Page Fortna, “Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace” (2004); Time Constant Data (STATA)

 

 

 

 

Creating Durable Peace | Research demonstrates the value, need, and importance of the Mediation Support Unit. Cataloguing conflicts since World War II, political scientist V. Page Fortna illustrates how stronger peace agreements (ie: those including enforcement mechanisms, political planning, and rule of law stipulations) result in more durable peace. Weaker agreements (ie: those only addressing a conflict’s symptoms) have less promising outcomes.